Norway’s Automobile Fleet Transitions To Electrical – How Lengthy Will It Take?


As of the top of Q2 2022, Norway’s passenger automobile fleet comprised 24.4% plugin automobiles (18% full electrics), up from 19.3% (13.6%) yr on yr. What’s the trajectory of Norway’s automobile fleet, and the way lengthy will it’s earlier than most automotive journeys are made on electrical energy?

This time a yr in the past, the plugin share of the fleet was 19.3% (13.6% BEV), so the share grew by 5.1% over the previous 12 months. This comes on account of 88.9% share of latest gross sales over this 12 month interval being plugin, and even if new gross sales have seen decrease absolute volumes just lately (H1 2022 was over 20% down in quantity YoY).

These outcomes means that, different issues being equal, as soon as plugins are frequently at or above 95% share of latest gross sales, and the auto gross sales market recovers to regular volumes, a plugin fleet annual progress of round 6% ought to end result.

A Longer View

To grasp the connection between evolving fleet composition, the relative proportion of Norway’s passenger automobile journey made by electrical energy versus fossil gasoline energy, and the discount in quantity of fossil fuels used, we have to step again a bit and take into account a couple of components.

First let’s perceive that the completely different powertrains in Norway’s passenger automobile fleet have very completely different age profiles. To see this, have a look at this long term (and simplified) fleet annual time sequence from 2005 to the top of 2022. This one relies on long run information from the SSB, somewhat than from the OFV (geek observe — their information methodology differs). I’ve eliminated the skinny slices of HEV and PHEV to give attention to the three most important powertrains:

The typical age of automobiles retiring from Norway’s passenger automobile fleet is at the moment 17 to 18 years previous (they might be scrapped, or exported as used automobiles). The general fleet profile due to this fact outcomes largely from the sample of latest automobile gross sales over the previous 20 years or so, and can’t rapidly transition primarily based solely on what has been taking place within the final handful of years.

We are able to clearly see from the above graph that petrol combustion automobiles (in yellow) had been very dominant in Norway’s passenger fleet popping out of the late Nineties and thru the early 2000s, however that diesel began to take growing share away from petrol, particularly from 2006-2007 onwards.

This was merely because of extra new diesel automobiles becoming a member of the fleet than new petrol automobiles — clearly through increased new gross sales and registrations (graph beneath).  However discover that — while diesels strongly dominated new gross sales from 2006 on — it wasn’t till 2016 that diesels really overtook petrol automobiles because the dominant powertrain within the general fleet. Fleet transitions take time.

Right here’s a visualization of that interval of diesel gross sales dominance, lasting from roughly 2006 to 2016:

 

Paradoxically, simply as diesel was lastly outweighing petrol within the general fleet, diesels gross sales had been quickly declining again to petrol gross sales ranges, and each had been then fading quick anyway, because of BEVs beginning their take over of the brand new automotive market.

Since round 2015, each combustion powertrains’ gross sales have been in steep decline as plugins and particularly BEV choices have multiplied and turn into ever extra reasonably priced, succesful, and obtainable. Right here at Cleantechnica we’ve been reporting on these evolving developments each month for key markets, for a few years.

Growing old Automobiles Get Pushed Much less

What does this view of the current historical past of powertrain gross sales and fleet share inform us? BEVs at the moment are taking the overwhelming majority of latest gross sales (round 80% and rising), and are thus slowly however steadily rising in fleet share as combustion friends fail to get changed by new combustion additions.

Importantly, the overwhelming majority BEVs within the fleet are very younger automobiles, in comparison with their combustion counterparts.

As of the beginning of 2022 BEVs represented some 16% of Norway’s general fleet, with 455,271 passenger BEVs on Norway’s roads. However observe that some 80% of these BEVs (over 330,000 of them) are 2017 classic or newer. Put otherwise, solely 20% are from 2016 or older.

The fleet of diesel and petrol automobiles, collectively over 70% of the overall fleet, are on common a lot older automobiles. Of the 1,166,789 diesel passenger automobiles within the fleet in the beginning of 2022, lower than 10% are automobiles offered in 2017 or later, so over 90% are greater than 5 years previous.

Likewise, within the petrol fleet of 911,502 automobiles (begin of 2022), solely round 12% are from 2017 or newer — 88% are greater than 5 years previous.

What’s the importance of this skewed aged profile of the combustion automobile fleet? Older automobiles on common get pushed lower than newer automobiles.

In consequence, the “annual automobile km traveled” (and due to this fact the power used /emissions produced) by previous automobiles is much less, different issues being equal.

On a whole-of-fleet degree, the proportion of complete passenger automobile km traveled is more and more weighted in the direction of the a lot youthful BEVs, and away from the older combustion automobiles. Moreso than a cursory look on the easy fleet powertrain share may counsel.

Clearly the concept older automobiles get pushed comparatively much less makes intuitive sense, however let’s affirm that the laborious information from Norway helps this, beginning with diesels:

Word how the discount in annual km traveled for diesel passenger automobiles as they age is pretty predictable and linear.  We are able to additionally see that the common (“All Ages”) diesel automobile within the fleet drove 12,665 km in 2021, down from a peak of over 19,000 in 2007 (when a lot of the diesel fleet was comparatively new and closely used).

Petrol automobiles in Norway get pushed much less annual km than diesels. That is partly as a result of, because of petrol ICEs being considerably cheaper to supply than diesel ICEs (which function at a lot increased stress), petrol energy is extra widespread within the reasonably priced compact, and subcompact, city automobile courses. Clearly these small automobile courses are likely to cowl much less annual KM than the common diesel automobile, which is bigger and dearer. The truth that diesels have higher gasoline price per km than petrol automobiles can also be an element differentiating their respective common annual km traveled.

The typical petrol automobile within the fleet traveled 8,117 km per yr in 2021, down from over 12,000 km in 2007:

 

BEVs are a distinct story, as a result of — at business scale — they’re a brand new and quickly evolving expertise, with excessive progress charges. Discover that previous to June 2013, the few BEV fashions obtainable in any quantity (Nissan Leaf, Mitsubishi i-Miev triplets, a couple of Assume! Metropolis, and Buddy EVs) had been 1st era, lowish vary automobiles, most fitted for city and regional journeys. Solely 30-something Tesla roadsters had been delivered to Norway in 2012, versus over 4,000 Leafs-and-triplets.

DC charging infrastructure was additionally in its infancy again earlier than 2013. These components resulted in annual common distance traveled for BEVs within the vary of 6,500 to 7,500 km, even when these automobiles had been new.

Nonetheless, after the Tesla Mannequin S arrived in Norway (from June 2013), and DC quick chargers for all BEVs began to unfold quickly, the common BEV annual km traveled rapidly began climbing, to virtually 12,000 km by 2016.

With increasingly chargers, and long-range-and-affordable BEVs obtainable from 2017 (Chevy Bolt/Ampera-e), later Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro, and a great deal of Tesla Mannequin 3s from February 2019, the annual km traveled has continued to extend.

In actual fact, as of the top of full yr 2021 BEVs, averaging 12,772 km per yr, had overtaken diesels’ 12,665 km:

With gasoline price financial savings being best for these with the very best annual driving distances, and BEVs now totally able to common long-distance journeys (particularly due to Norway’s nice charging infrastructure), the common km traveled of BEVs will possible improve for a number of extra years.

 

Whole Passenger Automobile KM Traveled by Powertrain

Norway’s statistics bureau (SSB) additionally gathers information on the mixed complete annual km pushed by all the membership of a given powertrain. Since we all know that the combustion powertrain fleets are extremely skewed in the direction of a lot older automobiles that are likely to drive much less, we should always anticipate to see their mixed complete km pushed declining even sooner than their proportion of the fleet is declining.

Let’s first isolate the SSB’s passenger automobile fleet information as particular person powertrain quantity curves:

Now, let’s test if the mixed complete annual km pushed by combustion powertrains is declining even sooner:

The visible impression is obvious, each petrol and diesel fleets’ complete km pushed is declining at a fair sooner charge than their precise fleet dimension is declining.

From their 2008 unit quantity (virtually 1.6M), till the top of 2021 (just below 0.9M), the variety of petrol automobiles within the fleet has decreased by 44.3%. Nonetheless, their mixed km pushed has declined at a a lot steeper charge, by 60.7%.

For diesels, from their peak fleet numbers in 2017, their ranks have decreased by 6.3% to the top of 2021, however their mixed KM pushed have decreased by 18.1%.

In each circumstances, the fleet of combustion automobiles have seen a disproportionate decease in complete km traveled over current years, because the fleet ages.

Gas Use Fade Out Fee?

As Norway’s passenger automobile fleet steadily continues its transition from combustion to electrical, and km traveled by combustion decreases, the gasoline use of Norway’s passenger automobile transport is clearly lowering.

Since petrol and diesel gasoline use by passenger automobiles ought to carefully correlate with the fleet’s km traveled, we are able to search for this relationship within the information.

Diesel gasoline is closely utilized by many different forms of highway automobiles than simply passenger automobiles, (and used extensively within the massive marine sector, and others additionally) so the correlation is tough to detect within the diesel gasoline gross sales information.

For petrol gasoline — for which gross sales tends to be very carefully tied to its use in petrol passenger automobiles — the decline with the diminishing annual KM pushed is perhaps clearer.

Right here’s the chart of petrol gasoline deliveries over time, a by-product of the above chart. Petrol deliveries are added on, scaled and anchored to match the 2010 level of reference (2010 is the primary date obtainable for the gasoline information set):

 

From 2010 to 2021, complete petrol fleet km pushed decreased by 55.3% (17,907 million km, all the way down to 7,995 million km). Petrol gasoline gross sales over the identical interval declined by simply 40.3% (1625 all the way down to 970 million liters). Right here’s the hyperlink to the information, together with sources for anybody who desires to dig additional.

General, clearly the amount of petrol gasoline deliveries is declining decently over time, simply not fairly maintaining tempo with the decline in fleet km traveled.

Is the petrol supply quantity being propped up by growing automobile dimension (the rise of SUVs), colder-than-normal winters, increased authorized driving speeds, or another variables? I don’t know. I’d recognize information geeks, particularly these conversant in components in Norway’s automotive panorama,  leaping in to the feedback and serving to us perceive why petrol (“motor gasoline”) gasoline deliveries will not be extra carefully matched over time with petrol automobile km traveled.

I’ll replace the article right here if our group has some good insights.

Biofuel facet observe — petrol gasoline deliveries above consists of the legislated fraction of bio-petrol (“bioetanol”) throughout the combine. This fraction stood at round 6% on the finish of 2020 and is steadily growing. Biodiesel was over 16% fraction of auto diesel in 2020 (newest dates I’ve sources for). A proportion of 12.5% to fifteen.5% biofuel is combined in to highway visitors fuels in 2022, and can rise over time. There’s additionally effort to extend the share of “superior” biofuels that don’t compete with meals manufacturing, nor contain deforestation.

General, we are able to conclude that the passenger automobile fleet is steadily turning over from combustion energy to plugin energy, the share of km traveled is popping over even sooner, and passenger automobile gasoline use is declining virtually (however not fairly) proportionally to km traveled. Sadly, we solely get the SSB’s “km traveled” information yearly, so we should wait till subsequent yr to inspect the evolving correlation between these 3 key variables.

Outlook

We get quarterly updates on Norway’s fleet composition from the OFV, through elbil.no., the most recent of which appeared a couple of weeks in the past. This time, somewhat than speaking the replace as a brief portion of Norway’s month-to-month EV report, I assumed I’d take readers by means of a deeper dive into a number of the key variables concerned.

As we noticed on the high of this text, on the finish of June 2022, the fleet comprised simply over 18.0% BEVs and 6.4% PHEVs, for a complete of 24.4% plugins. Over the previous 12 months, plugins had been 88.9% of latest gross sales, and this (together with gray imports and retirement charges) mapped to fleet share of plugins rising by 5.1%, from 19.3% to 24.4%.

This 5.1% change occurred even amidst H1’s auto gross sales volumes dropping by 20% YoY. If the brand new automobile market stabilizes at seasonally common volumes, and plugin share climbs to 95% of latest gross sales and past, we are able to anticipate the plugin fleet to develop by round 6% per yr within the close to future.

With growing gasoline costs throughout Europe, and BEVs getting steadily cheaper, there’s an honest likelihood that folk driving older combustion automobiles will even start to convey ahead their retirement from the customary 17-18 years age. To the extent that this occurs, maybe accompanied by higher imports of frivolously used BEVs from neighbouring international locations, the fleet plugin share could develop extra rapidly, maybe by 7% yearly within the coming years.

Which means, from mid-2022’s 24.4% share of the fleet, by the top of 2025 we may very well be taking a look at from 42% plugins (if 5% progress yearly) to 49% plugins (if 7%). By the top of 2030, 67% plugins (if 5%) to 84% (if 7%). I’ll take a cautious determine of 70% because the decrease sure.

Since plugless HEVs account for five% fleet share at present, and 4.4% of latest gross sales over the previous 12 months, and are newer than the common combustion automobile, HEVs ought to nonetheless maintain 3% to five% (say 4%) of the fleet by 2030. These are plugless and get all their power from combustion fuels, however are barely extra gasoline environment friendly than the common combustion-only automobile.

Picture by Fritz Hasler.

Which means solely round 26% of the fleet will probably be combustion-only by the top of 2030, and 30% as soon as we embody plugless HEVs.

Greater than 80% of the plugless fleet will probably be over 10 years previous and — as we noticed within the graphs above — being pushed quite a bit lower than they was once.

In 2010, 99.5% of the fleet had been plugless automobiles, every touring over 13,000 km per yr on common. By the top of 2030, the roughly 30% of the fleet that is still plugless will probably be touring possible 6,000 to 7,000 km per yr on common, round half their 2010 distances.

General then, plugless km traveled will due to this fact be roughly 15% of what it was in 2010, earlier than the EV transition had actually began. Gas demand for these km must be within the vary of 15% to twenty% of what’s was in 2010.

Nonetheless, recall that biofuels are already 12.5% to fifteen.5% of the highway transport gasoline quantity delivered at present. If biofuel quantity simply retains steady (or modestly growing) as general demand for combustion fuels declines to fifteen% to twenty% of earlier ranges, the fossil gasoline proportion of this residual highway gasoline demand may very well be simply half (or much less). This could then symbolize maybe simply 7.5% to 10% of the 2010 fossil gasoline quantity, for passenger automobiles.

There are many different classes of use of fossil fuels in Norway, however passenger automobiles are the biggest, and the opposite classes (particularly business highway transport classes) are additionally now rapidly turning to electrification.

What are your ideas on Norway’s passenger fleet transition and general decline in highway transport gasoline demand? Please be part of within the dialogue beneath.

 

 


 

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